8AM UPDATE: System could become depression soon, heavy rains still expected in southern Bahamas

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  Cone of possibilities at 8am. (NOAA)

   Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent

•  Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent

Satellite images, surface observations, and radar data indicate that a broad area of low pressure associated with a tropical wave is located over the northern Leeward Islands. 

Showers and thunderstorms have become more concentrated overnight and are showing signs of organization, but the system still appears to lack a well-defined circulation. 

Although environmental conditions are currently only marginally conducive for additional development, this system could become a tropical depression at any time during the next few days while it moves west-northwestward at about 15 mph across the northern Leeward Islands, near or over Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, and the Bahamas. 

An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate the disturbance late this morning. 

Gusty winds, heavy rains, and possible flash floods and mudslides are expected to occur over portions of the Leeward Islands, Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, and the southeastern and central Bahamas. 

System could soon become tropical depression, threaten Bahamas

TRACK: Five day track for system near Lesser Antilles. (NOAA)

* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent

* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent

Satellite images, surface observations, and radar from the Lesser Antilles indicate that a broad area of low pressure associated with a tropical wave a couple of hundred miles east of the Lesser Antilles has become a little better defined.

Although environmental conditions are only marginally conducive for development, this system could become a tropical depression during the next day or two while it moves west-northwest at 15 to 20 mph near the Leeward Islands and the Greater Antilles.

Conditions could become more conducive later this week while the system moves near the southeastern and central Bahamas.

Another Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate this disturbance tomorrow, if necessary.

Interests from the islands of the northeastern Caribbean Sea to the Bahamas should continue to monitor the progress of this system.

Gusty winds, heavy rains, and possible flash floods and mud slides could occur over portions of these areas regardless of tropical cyclone formation.