Cone of possibilities at 8am. (NOAA)
Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent
Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent
Satellite images, surface observations, and radar data indicate that a broad area of low pressure associated with a tropical wave is located over the northern Leeward Islands.
Showers and thunderstorms have become more concentrated overnight and are showing signs of organization, but the system still appears to lack a well-defined circulation.
Although environmental conditions are currently only marginally conducive for additional development, this system could become a tropical depression at any time during the next few days while it moves west-northwestward at about 15 mph across the northern Leeward Islands, near or over Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, and the Bahamas.
An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate the disturbance late this morning.
Gusty winds, heavy rains, and possible flash floods and mudslides are expected to occur over portions of the Leeward Islands, Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, and the southeastern and central Bahamas.