Tuesday, August 23, 2016

System could soon become tropical depression, threaten Bahamas

TRACK: Five day track for system near Lesser Antilles. (NOAA)

* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent

* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent

Satellite images, surface observations, and radar from the Lesser Antilles indicate that a broad area of low pressure associated with a tropical wave a couple of hundred miles east of the Lesser Antilles has become a little better defined.

Although environmental conditions are only marginally conducive for development, this system could become a tropical depression during the next day or two while it moves west-northwest at 15 to 20 mph near the Leeward Islands and the Greater Antilles.

Conditions could become more conducive later this week while the system moves near the southeastern and central Bahamas.

Another Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate this disturbance tomorrow, if necessary.

Interests from the islands of the northeastern Caribbean Sea to the Bahamas should continue to monitor the progress of this system.

Gusty winds, heavy rains, and possible flash floods and mud slides could occur over portions of these areas regardless of tropical cyclone formation.


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